On Tuesday 9/13/2022, the NOAA Severe Prediction Center has issued an alert for central Mass, a risk form marginal to slight – inclusive of the Framingham to Worcester area.
The risk is highest for severe weather from 3pm to 7pm with convection (storms) possible morning til night.
Any storm that hits us will have a 5-15% probability of damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or higher within 25 miles of Framingham. Small hail is possible with these storms, though will likely not meet the severe size (1 inch) threshold. A tornado is possible with a low 2-5% probability within 25 miles of Framingham.
TECHNICAL FORECAST:
...Eastern New York into parts of New England... A midlevel cyclone is expected to traverse the lower Great Lakes region during the day today, before evolving into an open wave and moving across northern New England this evening. As this occurs, a surface cyclone is forecast to gradually deepen over northern New England into southern Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves across New York into southern New England by this evening. Multiple rounds of convection are possible from eastern New York into parts of New England today, as ascent associated with the approaching midlevel cyclone spreads across a relatively moist environment. Morning convection/cloudiness may tend to limit diurnal destabilization, but some modest heating will be possible in the wake of early-day activity, prior to the arrival of the cold front. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is expected by early afternoon, with locally higher values possible wherever temperatures can warm into the mid/upper 70s F. Renewed storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front by early afternoon, with increasing deep-layer shear supporting the potential for a few organized storm clusters and/or marginal supercells. Even if organized storms develop, some uncertainty remains regarding the severe potential, with the environment not expected to be overly favorable for any particular hazard. Wind damage appears to be the most likely threat, given the potential for a few longer-lived clusters to move through the region. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is highest in the development of organized convection during the afternoon. Generally weak midlevel lapse rates will limit the overall hail threat, though some hail cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell. Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but a brief tornado or two will also be possible, especially where surface winds become backed in the vicinity of any boundaries generated by early convection and/or differential-heating zones.